Tangelic Talks – Episode 01
One Planet, Two Realities: The Energy Transition in the Global South Featuring Dr. Atul Arya on Tangelic Talks
7 minutes to read
In this episode of Tangelic Talks, we dive into the transformative energy shift in the Global South with Dr. Atul Arya from S&P Global. Dr. Arya breaks down complex issues surrounding energy access, sustainability, and equitable solutions, making them relatable and actionable for listeners. From exploring innovative projects to discussing the challenges and opportunities of transitioning to cleaner energy systems, this conversation sheds light on how the Global South is navigating the energy transition and leading the way toward a more sustainable future.
A key takeaway from the discussion is the importance of local context in designing climate policies. Dr. Arya critiques the “Northern-centric” solutions often proposed for the Global South, emphasizing that what works in developed economies may not be feasible for countries with different infrastructures, resources, and socio-economic conditions. For instance, while electric vehicles dominate climate talks in the West, many in the Global South don’t even own motorcycles, highlighting the need for pragmatic, scalable solutions.
Practical Solutions for a Just Transition
Dr. Arya highlights practical solutions tailored to the needs of developing countries:
Clean Cooking Initiatives: Transitioning to cleaner fuels like liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) can significantly reduce health risks from smoke inhalation and improve livelihoods, particularly for women.
Distributed Renewable Energy: Small-scale solar and wind projects can transform energy access in remote areas, as seen in the Philippines and Indonesia.
Innovative Two-Wheeler Solutions: Electric two-wheelers with swappable batteries offer a low-cost, climate-friendly alternative to traditional motorbikes, especially in Southeast Asia and Africa.
Financing the Transition
The financial barriers to energy transition in the Global South are immense. Dr. Arya advocates for innovative financing mechanisms, including:
Grants and Favorable Loans: To make clean energy projects viable in high-risk regions.
Regional Energy Markets: Leveraging natural gas or hydro resources across neighboring countries to meet shared energy needs efficiently.
Capacity Building: Empowering local communities with the skills to manage and maintain energy projects sustainably.
Dr. Arya also stresses the need to rethink how global climate funds are allocated. “If you had one extra dollar to spend on climate change, the best value is where people lack energy entirely,” he argues, urging global leaders to prioritize high-impact investments in the Global South.
Thought Provoking Q&A Session with Dr. Arya
Yeah, absolutely I think there is. I would start by putting a little caveat, which is that in the history of energy goes back hundreds of years, and no primary fuel, has ever been retired. We still use wood, biomass, cow dung and so on in parts of the world. Actually, we use a lot of wood for energy, not just for furniture.
So what I would say is this I think it's a bit unrealistic to say, “well, let's completely eliminate a particular fuel”. Now, I think we know that there are many challenges. For example, I'll use coal as the number one example, because coal has the highest CO2 emissions of any fossil fuel. So if you can eliminate as much coal as possible, that would be great. And, as we were talking in our conversation, doing that is not that straightforward, but there is a way to do that. So I think we need to find the right balance.
Think of Brazil. Brazil is one of the greenest countries in the world. Why? Because it has all these natural resources. It has all this hydropower and biomass, they use biofuel.
Therefore, it also depends upon geography. I'll use my birth country, India, where we have a lot of coal and coal is a lot cheaper than natural gas. So India has to find a way to balance the two, because the consumers there are not going to pay twice the price for electricity used from gas, although it's cleaner and all of that. But at the same time, the renewables are very cost competitive.
But the issue then is how do you make it a baseload power, meaning you know, when the sun is not shining, wind is not blowing. So they're looking at storage, which is getting cheaper as well, large scale storage. So this is the kind of approach we need to take, rather than saying, “all right, you know, no more oil and gas”, which is what the conversation has been. These big companies pioneering renewable energy in India have the capability, they have the know-how, they have the skills and, by the way, many of them are putting money. I'm sure they're going to put more into these new technologies. They want to do that, but at the same time they want to make money. You know they are not governments to just kind of do it for free or not make returns for their shareholders. So that balance is pretty critical.
Yeah, but you know the one country which is very unique in many ways, of course, China. It has the second largest population, second largest economy, also emitting a lot of CO2. But what we can see in China is they are truly practicing this multidimensionality. They still have a lot of coal, but they know that the coal has to come down, driven more by the fact that the local air quality has been so bad, so they have been bringing coal down. They're deploying more renewables than one can even imagine, more than the rest of the world combined. Every year, my colleagues and my research team are shocked as to how fast the Chinese department continues to grow and our view is that Chinese emissions, overall emissions, are close to being plateauing and then declining. Why?
Because, they're using this approach. They need coal to keep the lights on, but they also know that they need to move to renewables. So they're doing that. They're doing gas, but they also have the largest electric vehicle market in the world now. So they're doing that. So they have created a mindset. And now you could argue well, it's easier in China because you know the government can drive a lot of change, true, but if the public believes that this is the right answer, it can be driven in other places. I think the challenge in the West in particular, has been that the cost of transition has been higher and the cost of energy has gone higher, and with the added issue of inflation, it becomes much more challenging to sell the idea that you need to pay more for energy, and that's why we are seeing, in my view, the backlash.
We say, well, we don't need any of this, let's get rid of all the transition stuff, but at the same time, look at the US another good example. The state with the largest renewables now is not California, but it's Texas, because it's got the right geography and it had had policies until now very supportive of both solar and wind deployment.
There are many examples of this. The reason we said multidimensional is because we felt that there was a unidimensional conversation happening in the West, particularly in Europe, to say “here is the answer, everybody, let's just follow this line nicely”. And we said, “oh wait, you know, it's not that easy”. Everybody needs to charge their own destiny. That was the concept behind it and you very nicely described it.
So I think what I would say is that, first of all, you know who should pay or who is paying. You know the MDBs, multilateral development banks, the World Bank, IMF, Asian Development Bank and so on, they are all increasing their investment in the transition.Tthey have very tight rules of lending and they also have to maintain their credit rating as part of their shareholders, which are countries in most cases. That money is coming from the member countries, that's coming from the US and Europe and so on, so that's the first place to go. Second thing I would say is that, in terms of countries directly paying, and we saw this difficulty in Baku (COP29 in 2024), the challenge depends upon where you are. So let's take the US as an example. In the US, even if the US negotiators agree that they will contribute, that agreement has to pass through the US Senate and the president.
And now, with the change in the administration, and even before that, even in the current administration, it would have been very difficult because the public is not fully on board on the transition idea. So I think we have to educate people and my feeling is that as we see more impacts of climate through weather events, people will start to pay attention. When you don't live in a coastal state or in California or in, say, Florida and can't buy insurance because of floods and fire, they will start to pay more attention. So, ultimately, I think the public has to be behind this and the record so far, I feel, is very mixed, because look what's happened in France with those yellow jackets movement. Farmers were the most impacted by high energy prices and they didn't want to pay.
The challenge about the polluter pay and all that is that I think we need to think holistically. And I do believe, by the way, to make sure we get this right is that historical emissions clearly have important bearing. We can't just say because today, China is the number one polluter, therefore China is responsible. We have to look at the history. Now it turns out that China actually just crossed the EU in terms of cumulative emissions. So now the US is still the highest cumulative emitter, but China has become the number two and they're a big country. They're getting wealthier and they have a lot of capabilities, they're building huge supply chains, so they should be part of it.
I think, truly global. The first thing I would do is, if I was king of the world for a few minutes, I would first focus on energy access and making sure that the 2 billion people who don't have access to energy get energy. There are 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa whose consumption today is the same as it was in France and Germany in 1860. Not 1960. 1860. So that would be my first priority.
And then the second priority will be that wealthier countries, including Europe and the US, that become more energy efficient. We consume so much energy. Why does everybody need to have big houses and big cars and all of that? The US per capita greenhouse gas emission is around 17 tons per year, India is 2 tons. We don't want India to become US, we want the US to come down from 17. You can still live with a pretty high standard of living. Look at Japan or parts of Europe where you know you have a high standard of living with much lower emission.
Africa’s cumulative emissions are only 3%. So if it's 4% in the next 10 years, it's not going to move the needle. They can use some more hydrocarbons to grow along with renewables. But let's focus on where there is really the bigger opportunity.
As I was saying during the podcast (minute 14). I think, as we see more and more impact of these severe events, I think people's mind will change. I don't think there'll be like a single tipping point, it's not like a COVID where everybody says, “oh my God, you know we really need this vaccine”. I don't think there'll be a single tipping point or a single solution. But you know, slowly and surely we will start to see a change in behaviour, and that’s what the transition looks like right, slowly but surely.
Dr. Atul Arya
Senior Vice President and Chief Energy Strategist at S&P Global

Atul Arya Ph.D areas of expertise include business strategy, commercial analysis, oil markets, energy technologies, climate change and renewables. He has previously led Energy Insight, Research and Analysis and Energy Research teams at S&P Global (Now a part of S&P Global). Dr. Atul previously worked for BP for over 20 years in a number of operational, business, technical and strategic positions around the world. His career includes international leadership experience in a diverse array of energy fields spanning strategy development, business planning, field operations and technology commercialization. His experience includes leadership in solar energy development as well as oil and gas. Dr. Atul has previously served on boards of several companies and institutions and is member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Advanced Energy Technologies and is 25+ year member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. He is a sought-after speaker and moderator at public conferences, company boards and industry events and a member of the CERAWeek leadership team.
He holds B.S., M.S. and Ph. D. degrees in engineering.