Defining the Climate-Conflict Nexus

The term “climate-conflict nexus” describes the connection between climate change and various forms of violence, from resource-driven local disputes to large-scale political instability. As Schwartzstein explains, climate change acts as a “threat multiplier,” amplifying existing tensions rather than serving as a sole cause of conflict.

“Climate change isn’t necessarily the trigger,” he notes. “But it weakens governance structures, depletes resources, and erodes traditional coping mechanisms, making communities more vulnerable to violence.”

Real-World Examples of Climate-Driven Conflict

Schwartzstein shares compelling examples from his research, including how ISIS exploited climate-induced agricultural collapse in Iraq and Syria to bolster its ranks. In villages highly dependent on rainfall for farming, prolonged droughts pushed desperate individuals into militant groups, where they saw recruitment as a means of survival.

Similarly, he discusses farmer-herder conflicts in West and Central Africa, where unpredictable rainfall patterns have disrupted migration routes, leading to clashes over land and water resources. These tensions, previously mitigated through traditional negotiation mechanisms, have intensified due to climate-induced stressors.

The Role of Governance in Climate Resilience

Not all climate-affected regions descend into conflict. Schwartzstein emphasizes that governance plays a crucial role in determining outcomes. Countries with strong institutions and responsive disaster management systems can mitigate the effects of climate stress, while fragile states struggle to cope, increasing the risk of violence.

“Good governance is the difference between being affected by climate change and being vulnerable to it,” Schwartzstein explains. When governments invest in climate adaptation, resource management, and conflict resolution, communities can withstand environmental shocks more effectively.

The Hidden Crisis: Climate Change and Gender-Based Violence

A lesser-known yet pressing issue is the link between climate change and gender-based violence. Schwartzstein’s recent research in Greece reveals a disturbing trend: extreme heatwaves correlate with a sharp rise in domestic violence cases. This pattern is echoed in studies across the U.S. and Europe, demonstrating how climate stress impacts social stability in unexpected ways.

Finding Hope Through Environmental Peacebuilding

Despite the dire realities, Schwartzstein highlights success stories of “environmental peacebuilding,” where communities use shared environmental challenges as a basis for cooperation rather than conflict. NGOs and local organizations have facilitated negotiations between farmers and herders in the Sahel, restoring trust and preventing violence through sustainable resource-sharing agreements.

“The most striking thing is how much people actively try to avoid violence,” Schwartzstein notes. “When given the right tools and support, communities often find ways to coexist.”

What Can We Do?

Addressing the climate-conflict nexus requires coordinated action at multiple levels. Schwartzstein suggests:

• – Strengthening governance and disaster response systems in vulnerable regions.

• – Investing in sustainable agriculture and water management to prevent resource scarcity.

• – Supporting local peacebuilding initiatives that foster dialogue and cooperation.

• – Recognizing climate change as a public health issue, given its links to stress, violence, and displacement.