What’s Happening Right Now? Gulf of Panama Anomaly and ICJ Climate Ruling | Tangelic Talks S03EP05

Tangelic Talks – Season 03 | Episode 05

What is Happening right now? Gulf of Panama Anomaly and ICJ Climate Litigation

5 minutes to read

In this episode, we dive into breaking climate news with two big developments. First, we explore a major ecological shift in the Gulf of Panama, where a 40-year natural upwelling pattern that sustains plankton blooms — and by extension fish populations, coral reefs, and local livelihoods — has suddenly stopped for the first time on record. We discuss what this disruption could mean for marine ecosystems, fishing communities, and the broader economy if the pattern doesn’t return.

Second, we unpack the International Court of Justice’s new advisory opinion on climate responsibility. The ICJ declared that every country has a binding obligation to prevent significant harm to the climate system — regardless of whether they’ve signed treaties like Kyoto or Paris. While not yet legally enforceable, the opinion carries major political and moral weight and could pave the way for future interstate lawsuits over climate damages, from cross-border river pollution to greenhouse gas emissions.

Together, these stories highlight both the fragility of Earth’s systems and the growing legal tools available to hold nations accountable for protecting them.

Key points

[Andres Tamez]

There’s a phenomenon that happens in the Gulf of Panama.

It basically involves wind — I believe it’s wind — pushing hot water down and bringing cold water up. This process is really important for the ecology of the Gulf, and it’s been a consistent pattern for about 40 years. But this year, for the first time, it stopped.

That means the areas around the Gulf need to prepare and monitor whether this upwelling resumes next year or in some altered form. The implications are significant: coral reefs could be affected, fish populations could decline, and the fishing industry — a major part of the economy — could take a hit.

One of the key effects is on phytoplankton blooms. Without those blooms, there isn’t enough food to sustain the fish species that rely on them, which then cascades up the food chain. If the phenomenon doesn’t return soon, we could see crashes in fish populations, threatening both livelihoods and food security.

This is the first time in recorded history that the upwelling has stopped. The pattern has been documented year after year for four decades, though it’s unclear if it was different before monitoring began. Normally, it involves about a 10-degree differential in surface water temperatures, which drives the entire process.

  • For more than 40 years, the Gulf of Panama has relied on a remarkably consistent seasonal upwelling. Each year, from January to April, northerly trade winds would push warm surface waters aside, allowing cooler, nutrient-rich waters from the deep to rise. This process was vital for sustaining the region’s entire marine ecosystem. (Odea et al, 2025) 

  • In 2025, however, this system broke down in an unprecedented way. Data from both satellites and long-term on-site monitoring show that the upwelling began over six weeks later than usual, lasted only 12 days instead of the typical 66, and reached surface temperatures of just 23.3°C — far warmer than historical lows of 14.9°C. This marked not only a drastic reduction in duration but also a severe weakening of the cooling effect itself.

  • The primary driver appears to have been abnormal wind patterns. While the northerly winds were as strong as in past years, they came less often, were shorter in duration, and stirred the surface far less effectively. The cumulative “wind energy” that normally powers the upwelling was therefore at a record low.(University of Warsaw, 2025)

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